Like it or not, health care reform is on the front burner in Washington and a sea change in how individuals obtain health insurance may come soon. It’s still way too early to speculate on how it will all play out, says Dean Hatfield, Senior Vice President and Health Practice Leader at Sibson Consulting, because a number of proposals are under consideration.

But employers that want to stay ahead of the information coming out of Washington should look at the lengthy report recently published by the Congressional Budget Office, which legislators will scrutinize as they try to determine the best methods for providing health insurance to all Americans.

The President-elect made a campaign pledge that the employer-based system, which covers about 160 million people, would remain intact, but the CBO report lays out some possible tweaks to the current system which could have far reaching effects on work force stability.

Employers that offer comprehensive health insurance to retain and attract employees could be affected if the new health reform landscape offers people other, more attractive health insurance options through the individual insurance market or from a public program. “For example, legislation that expanded eligibility for Medicaid could make some of a firm’s employees (or their dependents) eligible for that program; alternatively, a proposal could provide a new tax credit for policies that are purchased in the individual market. Other factors held equal, a firm would be less likely to offer coverage if the relative attractiveness of its employees’ other options increased,” according to the report.

Would employees be more likely to retire early or change jobs if they aren’t dependent upon their employer for affordable, quality health care coverage? With the current moribund job market and depleted 401(k) accounts, it seems unlikely that companies would see a sudden exodus — but when the job market rebounds, unhappy workers who can improve their employment situation and have access to other health care options might strike out for greener pastures.