“What Went Wrong?” Is the Wrong Question
The bull market in “what went wrong” business books has produced a run on bailout postmortems.
If you’re interested in what went wrong, this Slate discussion conducted by financial writers (some of whom are publishing forthcoming books on what went wrong) provides fresh insights on the credit crisis and its aftermath.
The comments in this thread are valuable, but this discussion and others like it miss a larger, contrary point: Corporate risk management capabilities, even in the banking sector, are in great shape.
First, here’s some of the good stuff.
One of the writers, Barry Ritholtz (author of soon-to-be-published Bailout Nation) identifies a list of individual decisions in the past 20 years — including the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, the repeal of Glass-Steagall, and the Fed’s decision to drop interest rates from 2001-2003 — and says, “Reverse each of these [decisions] and the total systemic damage is far, far less.”
And here’s my contrarian complaint: The overall quality of corporate risk management capabilities in all sectors has never been better. These capabilities have been improving for years — a trend that started well before the crisis and one that continues today.
The banking sector is moving toward a common, shared language and platform for identifying and mitigating operational risk (and has been for several years).
The move to XBRL, the ongoing convergence of international and U.S. accounting/reporting standards, the widespread focus on formal GRC programs, and the new (and appropriate) regulatory focus on addressing systemic risk mark significant opportunities for improvements in overall corporate risk management capabilities.
Could human nature and individual decision-making use some improvement? Surely, and maybe this crisis is a wake-up call (maybe not, given that we tend to give ourselves these sorts of wake-up calls every ten years or so). Focusing on what went wrong sells books right now; focusing on what went right will sell books, and much more, over the long term. ###







March 6th, 2009 at 11:41 am
I think a culture change is really what’s needed. Too often, too little attention was paid to the individuals charged with controlling risk. Even the finest systems aren’t of much use if they’re ignored.
Karen Kroll
March 6th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Well, I can’t say I feel reassured. Enterprise risk management was pretty much de rigeur at large organizations, especially in the financial sector, long before the crisis. How come the ERM scanners at AIG, for example, didn’t pick anything up?
I wouldn’t have thought it would take a risk management genius to see the threats. Anyone who had taken out a mortgage, say, back in the eighties must have shared my experience of looking at those pre-2006 pages of newspaper ads for zero-down, teaser-rate loans and thinking ‘geez, I hope those guys know what they’re doing.’ Just how hard was it to predict that some day the Fed would start raising rates?
March 6th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
“What went wrong” is just a culmination of deregulation that’s been going on since the Carter administration. I believe it started with airlines then moved on to a lot of other industry segments including energy and telecom. But when the Glass Steagle Act was repealed at the end of the 80’s, breaking down the walls between investment banking and commercial banking, and financial supermarkets were created followed by deregulation in the financial services sector, the really big trouble was just around the corner.
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