Earlier this week, I looked at an RSM McGladrey poll of manufacturers and distributors that showed how deeply nervous these firms are about the sunset of the Bush tax cuts. A possible rise in the dividend tax rate, though not as big a worry as the individual and capital gains outlook, is a concern for 71 percent of survey respondents (who work mostly for private companies and pass-through entities). And for good reason: It’s looking more and more likely that the dividend tax will end up being hitched to the individual income tax rates.

This would mean a 39.6 percent top rate. And you can add to that the 3.8 percent surtax created in the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act.

BNA Software reports today that a budget resolution approved by the Senate Budget Committee makes no mention of continuing to tie dividend tax rates to capital gains rates after 2010. In the absence of Congressional action, these rates will decouple and dividends will again be taxed at ordinary income tax rates.

It’s not a done deal, but finding the offsets for a lower rate would be tough under the pay-go rules, according to BNA. ###