Trade Forecast Positive, Driven Largely By Emerging Markets
A new quarterly forecast of trade and international business, launched today by HSBC, shows world trade increasing by nearly three-quarters between now and 2025, when it will reach $48.5 trillion. That’s up from $27 trillion today. Driving the growth: Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Egypt’s trade volume, in fact, is predicted to rise by nearly 200 percent by 2025, as many companies in other countries see it as an entré to the Middle East. Trade in India will jump 156 percent, due to its strength in engineering and chemicals. Brazil’s trade volume will grow 144 percent, largely with countries in Asia, including Vietnam and China.
That’s not to suggest the global economy will right itself any time soon; in fact, much of the jump in overall growth occurs after 2015, when it is predicted to peak at about 7.1 percent. Until then, growth will progress at a steady, but measured two percent annually. The subdued forecast over the near term is a result of volatility and weak demand in both the U.S. and European economies.
Looking at trade on a country-by-country basis, China’s growing strength is apparent. Its share of world trade will increase the most over the next 15 years, to hit $6.3 trillion in 2025, when it will account for about 13 percent of world trade. India’s share will be just shy of $1 trillion.
Conversely, the share of world trade held by developed economies will drop, although they’ll remain major players. The U.S., for instance, which currently accounts for just under 12 percent of world trade, will decline to about 9 percent. The share oft trade held by North America as a whole, will remain flat, dipping from 14.5 percent currently to 14.3 percent in 2025.
The top three fastest-growing exporters will be Egypt, China and Australia. The Aussie’s growth will be driven by their stores of natural resources, including iron, steel and coal. In fact, Australia is the world’s largest net exporter of coal, accounting for 29 percent of global coal exports, according to The World Factbook by the CIA.
The patterns of growth will lead to other changes in world trade, the HSBC report notes. For starters, trade between emerging countries will increase rapidly. That’s due in part to the strong growth expected of them, as well as new free trade agreements they’re negotiating. A case in point: Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan recently agreed to create a common economic space by 2012, and invited other former Soviet republics to join the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC).
Still, the growth won’t be without pitfalls. Nearly one-fourth of respondents to the HSBC’s survey expect the risk of buyer default to increase. To contain this risk, companies will make greater use of trade finance tools and export credit insurance. Indeed, that appears to already be occurring. Trade credit coverage for medium- and long-term transactions rose 14 percent between 2008 and 2009, to $511 billion, according to this report by the Berne Union, a trade association for credit and investment insurers.
This cautionary note notwithstanding, it’s clear that businesses interested in growth need to set their sites internationally.








